Presence Detection Part 1: Home Assistant & Bayesian Probability

One of the most useful things to track for home automation is whether anyone is home or not. If you want the lights to turn off when no one is home, the vacuum robot to run when you’re at work, or the heat to come on before you arrive home on a cold night you need to reliably be able to tell if the house is occupied.

How can we track the state of something that is not directly observable? We can’t plug ourselves directly into the internet (…yet). After trying several approaches to monitoring presence, I’ve come up with a method that is very near 100% reliable.

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